Case Study Industrial · Cost modeling

Turn shutdown cost history into a budget plan.

Manifesttto was the software consultancy Paulo Cardoso co-founded in Salvador. For Braskem, one of Latin America's largest petrochemical companies, the team built a linear regression model on historical cost spreadsheets. It projected the expected cost of the next planned maintenance shutdown before budget was committed.

Client
Braskem
Delivery team
Manifesttto
Sector
Petrochemicals
Engagement
Cost projection model
Input
Historical spreadsheets
An industrial cost planner reviewing a projection beside an orange hard hat
Manifesttto × Braskem: A regression model turned shutdown cost history into a projection before budget commitment.
By the numbers
12 peopleManifesttto at its peak
4 partnersLeading delivery
AnnualPlanned maintenance shutdown
1 chartProjected shutdown cost

Paulo owned the work from the first conversation to production.

Manifesttto was the software consultancy Paulo co-founded in Salvador. At its peak, it was a twelve-person team with four main partners delivering custom platforms across several clients at once.

Paulo sat on both sides of the table. He closed deals, negotiated scope with non-technical owners, set expectations on budget and timeline, then built the systems with the team and owned the outcome through production.

Historical cost spreadsheets became a forward projection.

Braskem runs a planned maintenance shutdown of its industrial plants each year, an event the company calls a parada. Predicting that shutdown's cost matters before planners commit the budget.

The team built a linear regression model on top of the historical cost spreadsheets Braskem shared. The input stayed familiar to the planners. The output became a cost projection chart for the next shutdown.

The delivery in one line

  • Historical maintenance cost spreadsheets in
  • A regression model fitted to that cost history
  • An expected-cost projection chart out
Engineering note

The useful part was the translation layer. Braskem could keep supplying the historical cost data it already had, while the model turned that history into a projection the planning team could use before the next shutdown budget was fixed.

Paulo Cardoso Project partner · the build

Planners could see the expected cost before setting the budget.

The model moved the shutdown estimate from a backward-looking spreadsheet exercise to a forward projection.

It gave the planning team a clear expected-cost view of the next maintenance shutdown while there was still time to shape the budget.

Linear regression Historical cost data Spreadsheets Projection chart
Role
Scope, modeling & delivery
Partner
Paulo Cardoso
Model
Consultancy project
Status
Delivered
Project partner Paulo Cardoso

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